On April 23, 2025, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security announced the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) suspension, ambiguously describing its status as “in abeyance”. Historically, the IWT was one of the rare examples of sustained cooperation between two nuclear powers despite all the geopolitical turbulence in South Asia. Yet today, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s radically hypernationalist Hindutva government, that treaty has become India’s newest instrument of geopolitical leverage.
The IWT suspension followed a gunman attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam region, which resulted in the death of 26 tourists, including a Muslim Kashmiri native. Within a few minutes after the incident happened, the entire Indian mainstream news channels and social media handles quickly rushed to blame Pakistan without providing any evidence or holding their government accountable for an internal security failure.
India has set a troubling new norm for the world by deliberately violating the established water management agreement between the two countries, which was brokered by the World Bank in 1960. It reflects a radical shift toward using water as a weapon, mirroring the same pattern that the Israeli regime uses to block water access to innocent Palestinian civilians.
Why India’s Move Is More Than Symbolic
India’s aggressive stance is a clear signal of how its radical regime wants to exploit Pakistan’s vulnerability to water disruption, directly destabilizing the country economically, politically, and socially. However, despite all the media noise and diplomatic actions, the water will continue to flow unless India starts building critical infrastructure on key rivers.
India just announced that it would unilaterally revoke the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) 1960, blaming Pakistan for the #Pahalgam shooting incident without any evidence.
Seems like another #IndianFalseFlag by the BJP govt for political gains, but this will backfire…
Here’s why: 👇
— Shaiq Uddin (@shaiquddin) April 23, 2025
Practically, the Indus Waters Treaty suspension means India can now unilaterally manipulate water flows on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), allocated to Pakistan under the agreement. While such manipulation can cause water shortage in Pakistan, India currently doesn’t have the infrastructure to immediately divert water to drought-prone states, such as Rajasthan or Gujarat.
But if we see this from a strategic lens, this violation signifies something even more sinister.
India’s ruling BJP government has actively embraced Hindutva nationalism, increasingly driven by domestic political calculations rather than regional stability or international laws. This radicalized approach is likely to embolden Modi further, creating political incentives for even more aggressive actions against Pakistan, potentially leading to dangerous miscalculations in the coming weeks and months.
An Escalating Conflict
The deliberate coupling of military provocation and water weaponization aligns with the BJP’s radical ideology, seeking to capitalize on the domestic narrative of “punishing” Pakistan as a political strategy in the election campaigns.
Given India’s history of launching unprovoked attacks on Pakistan under Modi’s hypernationalist leadership, like in 2019, which ended up in a global embarrassment for India, it won’t be wrong to anticipate direct military provocations along the Line of Control (LoC) and in sensitive areas like Kashmir and Punjab in the coming weeks.
A direct escalation along the LoC is highly plausible considering the past conflicts between the two countries. India’s Modi regime may exploit Pakistan’s distraction with internal water emergencies to launch limited military airstrikes or artillery exchanges on alleged “terror camps” for optics, aiming to create tactical pressure on Pakistan’s military establishment.
In that case, Pakistan won’t also sit quietly, just like it didn’t hold back in the 2019 conflict when the Pakistan Air Force intercepted IAF fighters and shot down an SU-30 MKI and a MiG-21 in broad daylight, and captured the Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhindandan. But this time, the dynamics are entirely different, and Pakistan’s military establishment is signaling a much harsher response to any Indian aggression.
If such a confrontation happens in the coming weeks, it could quickly spiral into a broader conflict and risk severe cross-border violence on both sides.
The Strategic Wildcard
While the Indian leadership is probably planning a military misadventure against Pakistan very soon, apart from the IWT suspension, they’re also opening the door for China, Pakistan’s major defense partner, that has the crucial upper-riparian position on key Indian rivers, including the Brahmaputra and the upper reaches of the Indus in Tibet.
China is a strategic wildcard that can counterbalance Indian aggression by assisting Pakistan on military, diplomatic, and economic fronts. If India doesn’t reverse the Indus Waters Treaty suspension, China will likely come out supporting Pakistan. And if the situation worsens, China may also strategically increase water management activities upstream, on the Brahmaputra and other rivers, to signal India that its reckless aggression carries serious consequences.
In the coming months, we can expect deeper Sino-Pakistani hydrological collaboration, potentially including real-time telemetry sharing, joint river management projects, and political backing in global forums, including the UN. This will send a powerful message to India and mark water as an emerging geopolitical battleground involving three nuclear powers.
IWT Suspension as Permanent Policy
Considering how the Modi government still stands by its decision to unilaterally revoke Article 370 in August 2019, which granted special status to Kashmir, it won’t be surprising if India’s Indus Water Treaty suspension evolves from a temporary measure to a permanent stance. As India’s internal politics radicalize further, policymakers in New Delhi can also announce that restoring the treaty is permanently off the table in the near future.
In response, Pakistan will likely shift its diplomatic stance to an offensive mode by mobilizing international forums, including the UN Security Council and the International Court of Justice, to condemn and sanction India’s reckless actions. Furthermore, the Pakistani government will also accelerate its emergency water management preparedness and infrastructure resilience measures with the help of China.
However, despite all the countermeasures, as long as India’s posture remains heavily influenced by the BJP’s extremist political ideology, regional stability in South Asia would be impossible without serious diplomatic dialogue or strategic intervention by another country.
Final Thoughts: A New Era of Hydropolitics
With India’s reckless and radical suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a troubling new era begins in South Asia, where water isn’t merely a shared resource but a potent geopolitical weapon that upper-riparian countries can easily exploit.
The international community must recognize India’s actions as profoundly destabilizing, threatening a dangerous escalation in a region already vulnerable to an irreversible conflict. For Pakistan, rapid strategic recalibration is essential to mitigate immediate impacts and ensure long-term sovereignty over its water share, which is vital to its large agribusiness sector that employs nearly 40% of its population.
India’s radicalized regime under Modi has taken a dangerous step, and its consequences, if not addressed urgently and decisively, could ripple far beyond regional borders, setting a perilous global precedent. Water has now become a frontline national security issue, and Pakistan must respond swiftly, strategically, and decisively.
